<this is likely out of date, also, is a language model, so one should be wary of those biases / inaccuracies>
Syria’s modern history is deeply rooted in its past under the Ottoman Empire, where it was part of the larger region known as ‘Bilad-u-Sham,’ encompassing present-day Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and Iraq. This territory was divided into provinces, including Aleppo, Day Az-Zor, Damascus, and Beirut, under Ottoman rule for approximately 400 years until World War I.
During World War I, the fall of the Ottoman Empire led to the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, in which Britain and France divided the Ottoman territories, disregarding the complex religious, ethnic, and tribal compositions. Under the League of Nations Mandate System, France was granted control over Syria and Lebanon, formalizing this arrangement after the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. French rule continued until Syria achieved independence on October 24, 1945.
Following independence, Syria grappled with internal divisions, reflected in its diverse population, which included a Sunni Muslim majority and several minority groups like Alawites, Druze, Turkmen, Assyrians, and Christians. The social fabric was further complicated by economic disparities between wealthy urban dwellers and impoverished rural populations. Political instability marked the post-independence period, with multiple coups, culminating in the Baathist coup of 1963. Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, seized power in 1970 and established a regime characterized by economic development, education reforms, military strengthening, and staunch opposition to Israel. His rule centralized power in the Baath Party, military, and bureaucracy, but his repressive tactics against dissent bred resentment among the Sunni majority, which would later resurface during the Arab Spring protests.
Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000, continuing similar policies while perceived as less astute and more corrupt. His regime’s failure to address widespread economic disparities and political repression contributed to growing dissatisfaction, culminating in the 2011 Arab Spring-inspired protests. The government’s harsh crackdown on these protests escalated the situation into a full-scale civil war.
Syria’s internal politics have been heavily influenced by its sectarian and ethnic composition. The dominance of the Alawite minority, to which the Assad family belongs, in the government and military fueled resentment among the Sunni majority. The regime’s use of a vast intelligence apparatus to suppress political opposition only deepened grievances. Economic disparities between the ruling elite and the general populace, along with accusations of corruption, further fueled unrest, leading to the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.
The Syrian conflict quickly attracted the involvement of regional and global powers, transforming it into a proxy war. Russia and Iran emerged as strong supporters of the Assad regime, providing military and diplomatic support to maintain their strategic foothold in the region. Turkey, concerned about Kurdish autonomy, backed various opposition groups and intervened militarily to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state. The United States, driven by a complex history of antagonism with the Syrian government, supported certain rebel groups while focusing on the fight against ISIS. The Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also played roles, supporting different factions to advance their geopolitical interest
The civil war began with peaceful protests in March 2011, but the Assad regime’s brutal response, involving live fire and mass arrests, led to an escalation into armed conflict by the end of the year. Various rebel groups formed, initially for local defense, later evolving into larger factions with external support. Displacement became a significant consequence of the war, with millions of Syrians forced to flee their homes, creating one of the largest refugee crises in modern history.
The Syrian Civil War has had profound and lasting impacts on the region. The rise of extremist groups, regional instability, and a massive refugee crisis are among the significant outcomes. The destruction of infrastructure, societal divisions, and the breakdown of social structures have left deep scars, requiring extensive efforts for reconstruction, reconciliation, and addressing the underlying causes of the conflict.
Current State of Syria
Syria today remains a nation deeply scarred by years of conflict, with territorial divisions that reflect the ongoing complexity of its civil war. The Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, controls approximately 35% of the country, including key urban centers such as Damascus, Homs, Hama, and much of Aleppo. These areas, while geographically limited, are home to about 60% of the population. Despite this control, the government faces significant challenges, including economic hardship and continued unrest in various regions.
In the northwest, rebel-held areas, particularly in Idlib province, remain under the control of groups such as Fateh al-Sham. These areas account for roughly 12% of Syria’s territory and are marked by ongoing skirmishes and a fragile ceasefire that is often breached. The Kurdish forces, primarily the YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have established control over about 18% of the country, predominantly along the northern border with Turkey. They have declared a federal region in their territories, striving for autonomy amidst the broader conflict.
The Islamic State (ISIS), though significantly weakened, continues to maintain a presence in around 35% of the country, primarily in the sparsely populated regions of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. The remnants of ISIS still pose a threat, engaging in sporadic attacks and exploiting the instability in the region.
The conflict in Syria has led to a massive displacement crisis, with approximately 6.7 million people displaced internally and another 6.6 million having fled the country, seeking refuge in neighboring nations and Europe. The ongoing violence, particularly in regions like Idlib, has hampered efforts to stabilize the situation, leaving millions in precarious conditions.
Economically, Syria is in dire straits. The prolonged conflict has devastated infrastructure, industry, and agriculture, plunging most of the population into poverty. Sanctions and a lack of international investment have exacerbated the economic crisis, contributing to widespread dissatisfaction and unrest.
Major Internal Conflicts and Resolutions
The Syrian civil war began as a popular uprising against the Assad regime’s authoritarian rule but quickly escalated into a multifaceted conflict. The primary struggle remains between the regime and various opposition factions, including moderate rebels and Islamist groups. This conflict has been exacerbated by ethno-sectarian tensions, particularly between the Alawite-led government and predominantly Sunni rebel groups. Inter-rebel conflicts have further complicated the situation, as factions with differing goals and external support often clash, undermining a cohesive opposition.
While there have been localized ceasefires and the establishment of de-escalation zones, these agreements have not led to a comprehensive national peace deal. The Assad regime’s resistance to power-sharing and its continued reliance on military solutions have prolonged the conflict.
External Factors and Regional Dynamics
The Syrian conflict is often described as a proxy war, with significant involvement from regional and global powers. Russia and Iran have been staunch allies of the Assad regime, providing military and logistical support to help maintain his grip on power. Russia’s air support has been crucial in the regime’s recapture of key territories, while Iran’s involvement has been driven by strategic interests in the region, particularly its opposition to Israel and support for Hezbollah.
Turkey has taken a more complex stance, supporting some opposition groups while directly intervening to curb Kurdish influence near its borders. The United States has focused primarily on counterterrorism efforts, particularly against ISIS, while also providing limited support to certain rebel factions. The Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have backed various opposition groups to counter Iranian influence.
International efforts to resolve the conflict through negotiations in Geneva and Astana have had limited success. These talks have struggled to produce a lasting political settlement, often stymied by the intransigence of key actors and the complexity of the war.
Turkey and Syria
Turkey’s relationship with Syria has been shaped by the complex dynamics of the Syrian Civil War and Turkey’s broader regional ambitions. Initially, Turkey and Syria shared relatively stable diplomatic ties, but these deteriorated sharply following the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Turkey became one of the most vocal opponents of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, supporting various rebel groups and calling for Assad’s ouster.
Turkey’s involvement in Syria is driven by several key interests. First, it seeks to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish autonomous region along its southern border, which it fears could embolden separatist sentiments among its own Kurdish population. This has led to multiple military incursions into northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces like the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey views as extensions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU.
Additionally, Turkey has established a military presence in parts of northern Syria and has supported various factions to create a buffer zone to prevent the influx of refugees and to counteract the influence of Kurdish forces. The situation in Idlib, where Turkey has exerted influence over rebel groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), illustrates its complex role in the conflict. While the West regards HTS as an extremist group, Turkey’s engagement with the group reflects its pragmatic approach to managing the situation on its border and preventing a humanitarian catastrophe that could result from a full-scale offensive by Syrian government forces.
Turkey’s relationship with Syria is thus marked by both direct military involvement and diplomatic maneuvering, aiming to secure its national interests while navigating the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict.
Assad has fled
In a dramatic turn of events, Bashar al-Assad, the long-standing Syrian leader, has fled to Russia following the unopposed seizure of Damascus by rebel forces. This development marks a significant shift in the Syrian conflict, which has spanned over a decade.
State media in Russia, Assad’s key ally throughout the civil war, confirmed that Assad and his family arrived in Moscow and have been granted asylum on “humanitarian grounds.” This flight came after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a prominent rebel group, swept into the Syrian capital over the weekend, signaling the collapse of Assad’s regime. The swift takeover of Damascus saw little resistance, highlighting the weakened state of government forces.
In a symbolic moment, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, a leading figure of HTS, addressed a jubilant crowd in a Damascus mosque, proclaiming, “This victory is for all Syrians.” His speech resonated with many in the capital, who poured into the streets in a mixture of relief and celebration, expressing hope for a future free from the oppressive regime. The mood was captured by civilians who shared their emotions with BBC’s Barbara Plett Usher, declaring that they could “finally breathe” after years of conflict and repression.
Amidst the celebrations, the sounds of explosions echoed through Damascus late on Sunday. Reports suggest that Israel conducted airstrikes on a significant security complex, though Israeli authorities have not confirmed these actions. The strikes underscore the volatile nature of the region and the complex web of interests at play.
The fall of Assad’s regime also led to the liberation of thousands of prisoners from government jails, a grim reminder of the regime’s brutal crackdown over the years. Between 2011 and 2018, countless detainees were reportedly executed or succumbed to torture and starvation in these facilities. Their release has added a poignant note to the unfolding events, as families search for loved ones and reflect on the harrowing legacy of Assad’s rule.
On the international stage, reactions have been cautious. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that the United States would closely monitor the situation, assessing the rebel leadership based on their actions moving forward. The ambiguity surrounding Syria’s future looms large, with analysts and world leaders acknowledging the potential for both hope and further conflict in the nation’s path ahead.
Jolani / Jawlani
Jolani, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is a key figure in the Syrian conflict. He is the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a powerful Islamist group in Syria. Jolani first emerged as the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, in 2012. In 2017, he oversaw the formation of HTS, which aimed to unite various rebel factions in Syria. Under Jolani’s leadership, HTS has become a dominant force in Idlib province, the last major rebel stronghold in Syria. He has been described as a pragmatic leader who is willing to adapt his strategies to achieve his goals.
Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has undergone a significant evolution in his political and ideological alignments throughout the Syrian conflict. Initially, Jawlani rose to prominence as the head of the al-Nusra Front, the official Syrian branch of al-Qaeda. This early alliance provided his group with ideological backing and a connection to the global jihadist network. However, in 2016, Jawlani sought to distance himself from al-Qaeda, rebranding his faction first as Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and later as HTS. This move was widely seen as an attempt to shift focus towards Syrian nationalism and local governance, rather than adhering strictly to global jihadist objectives.
Jawlani’s HTS has formed various tactical alliances with local Islamist factions, often driven by the necessity of consolidating power against common enemies such as the Assad regime. However, these alliances have been fluid, and HTS has frequently clashed with Western-backed moderate rebel groups like the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) and Harakat Hazm, undermining U.S. efforts to build a cohesive opposition front. Jawlani’s group has also had to navigate a complex relationship with Turkey. Although Ankara views HTS with suspicion due to its extremist roots, there has been a pragmatic understanding, particularly in the context of maintaining stability in Idlib and preventing a large-scale refugee crisis. This relationship has allowed HTS to control key border crossings with limited Turkish interference, though it remains fraught with tension.
Financially, HTS has been accused of receiving support from Qatar and other Gulf states, either directly or through private donors, highlighting the regional complexities of the Syrian conflict. Despite these alleged ties, Jawlani and HTS remain fierce adversaries of the Assad regime and its allies, Russia and Iran, engaging in numerous battles to maintain control of their territories, particularly in northwestern Syria.
Jawlani’s attempts to rebrand HTS as a more moderate entity focused on local governance have sparked some tentative discussions of engagement with Western powers. However, given the group’s history of extremism and ongoing human rights violations, Western nations have largely remained wary, maintaining HTS on their terrorism lists and limiting any formal interaction. Jawlani’s political maneuvering reflects a strategic effort to balance the need for survival and dominance in a conflict characterized by shifting alliances and enduring hostility.
A new election
After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, significant changes unfolded rapidly. Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, Assad’s ninth prime minister, continued in a caretaker role, backed by both the opposition and Ahmed al-Sharaa, until a transitional government was established the next day. This new government, led by Mohammed al-Bashir, promised fresh elections to let Syrians choose their leaders.
Before Assad’s fall, Mohammed al-Bashir headed the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib, an administration formed by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that played a pivotal role in Assad’s overthrow in December 2024. The transitional government closely mirrored the SSG in its composition, though there have been reports of repression against HTS critics, including enforced disappearances and torture.
Amid these developments, Israel launched a ground invasion near the Golan Heights and conducted airstrikes targeting Syrian military sites, claiming to dismantle Ba’athist military infrastructure and prevent rebels from accessing chemical weapons.
Meanwhile, Turkish-backed forces continued their offensive against the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria until a ceasefire was reached in mid-December. HTS also pushed to disarm and absorb the SDF, aligning with Turkey’s objective to neutralize the SDF.
Prime Minister al-Bashir has vowed to protect the religious practices of Christians and other minorities, though skepticism remains due to the past affiliations of some rebel groups with extremist organizations. Concerns have also been raised about the use of a religious flag alongside the national opposition flag, suggesting a possible shift away from secular governance. Criticism over the lack of female representation in the new government led to the appointment of Aisha al-Dibs as the Minister of Women’s Affairs in late December.
In a statement, the transitional government announced that the constitution and parliament would be suspended during their three-month term, with plans to establish a committee to review and amend the constitution.
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